Analysis of Kentucky Derby 142

(Analysis of Kentucky Derby 142?  That's not Crossfit-related!  Yeah, I know, but since this is the one time each year that I can reliably expect my non-gambling friends to gamble, I thought I'd share my analysis of the big race.  It also gives you the opportunity to mock me after the race is over, since I rarely get the Derby right.)

It’s time for Kentucky Derby 142!  And this is the place to get way too much analysis on the race, along with some faulty prognostication that will leave your wallet considerably lighter.  Don’t say you weren’t warned!

Before getting to the pros and cons of the horses in this year’s field, allow me to give you some background on this year’s race.  Last year, American Pharoah had a historic year, becoming the first racehorse in 37 years to win the Triple Crown.  Will we have the same buzz this year?  Probably not.  This year’s crop of male horses leaves a lot to be desired.  I said male horses because there are a few 3 year old females that would have been contenders in this year’s Derby.  In fact, one of them would have been the favorite had her connections pointed her to the race.  (That filly’s name is Songbird.  Unfortunately, she recently spiked a fever and will be unable to run in the Kentucky Oaks where she would have been a huge favorite.) 

Most of the Derby preps followed a similar pattern: very fast early, very slow late.  That explains why the field has an unusually high number of closers in it.  One other factor to consider: 3 of the major Derby preps (Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Santa Anita Derby) were contested on wet tracks.  The forecast for Saturday does not include much of a chance for rain, meaning the race will likely be run on a fast track.

There is one horse in this year’s field who could be a potential superstar and his name is Nyquist.  He is undefeated and he was the 2 year old champion.  So why isn’t he getting the buzz that American Pharoah did?  Because he’s only been slightly better than the rest of his slow generation.  Most Derby winners come into the race sporting speed figures in the 100-110 range.  Nyquist’s best speed figure in a route race is 94.  Because of that, folks are looking for alternatives to the undefeated champ.  I’ll lay out who I like below.  In total, I’ll be using six horses for exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.  Most of the horses in the race are toss outs for me.  And there are a couple of horses who may win, but I’ll try and beat them to cash in on horses with higher odds.

Without further ado, your field for the 142^nd Kentucky Derby:

#1 – Trojan Nation (ML Odds: 50-1)

Pros: Ummm….value?  Even that might not be true as you’re probably not going to get 81-1 on him like he went off at in the Wood Memorial.  It’s possible that this deep closer will like running 10 furlongs as his big improvement in the Wood (where he lost by a head) came in a race where he ran farther than he had ever run in the past.

Cons: This horse is a maiden.  That means he has never won a race in his life.  The Derby is a tough place to get win #1.  Plus, there is no post position trainers dread in the Derby more than post #1.  A win by this horse would be more shocking than Mine That Bird’s victory (and that horse should have been about 150-1 in that race).

Verdict: Complete Toss

#2 – Suddenbreakingnews (ML Odds: 20-1)

Pros: Won the Southwest Stakes and was second in the Arkansas Derby despite a very wide trip.  His speed figure of 94 in that race matches Nyquist’s best speed figure in a route race.  Has been training well this week at Churchill Downs.

Cons: Lost to the horse right next to him in his last two races.  There is unlikely to be a lot of speed in the Derby and this is horse is a deep closer.  The #2 post is not a lot better than the #1 post in the Derby.

Verdict: Toss, but you may want to use him on the bottom of trifectas/superfectas

#3 - Creator (ML Odds: 10-1)

Pros: Upset winner of the Arkansas Derby seems to be getting better at the right time.  As the races have gotten longer, his results have improved.  His latest speed figure is competitive with the top contenders in the race.  Another who has made a strong impression while training at Churchill Downs this week.

Cons: He may be the deepest of the deep closers in this race.  He had a perfect trip in the Arkansas Derby, allowing him to weave past 13 other horses in a race with a blazing pace up front.  Can he do the same thing and pass 19 other horses in a race that looks like it will only have moderate speed up front?

Verdict: Toss, but you may want to use him on the bottom of trifectas/superfectas

#4 - Mo Tom (ML Odds: 20-1)

Pros: The hard luck horse of this year's 3 year old crop.  In the Risen Star, this deep closer was charging up the rail, but had to take up when the hole on the rail closed.  In the Louisiana Derby, he came charging up the rail again, only to meet the same fate, having to pull up in mid-stretch.  He might have won both of those races with better trips.  He may be the best closer in the field.

Cons: In those two races, he faced a combined 19 opponents and found a ton of trouble.  On Saturday, he will have 19 opponents in one race.  If he couldn't avoid trouble in shorter fields, how does he do it in this huge field?  He has yet to post a speed figure in the 90's, much less one in the 100's, so maybe he's not as good of a closer as people originally thought.

Verdict: Toss, but you may want to use him on the bottom of trifectas/superfectas

#5 - Gun Runner (ML Odds: 10-1)

Pros: The beneficiary of Mo Tom's troubles, Gun Runner won both of the Louisiana prep races.  He has 4 wins in 5 races.  Nobody did better in the post position draw than this horse as he has four closers to his inside and three closers to his outside.  Should be able to easily get a good position early in the race.  His ability to lay close to the pace will be a plus in a race that is not expected to have a lot of early speed.

Cons: Despite perfect trips in those prep races (and not so perfect trips for his competition), he could only muster speed figures of 90 and 91.  Even with another perfect trip, he will need to run considerably faster to wear the roses on Saturday night.

Verdict: Toss, think he'll fade in the stretch

#6 - My Man Sam (ML Odds: 20-1)

Pros: Lightly raced with only 4 races so far, but has two speed figures in the 90's (top of 95).  Ran 2nd in the Blue Grass after starting from the outside post and trailing the field of 14 in the early stages of the race.  Draws a much better post today.  Has never gone off at more than 5-1, yet sits at 20-1 in the ML.

Cons: Moved from 14th to 2nd...why that sounds like another deep closer!  The Blue Grass was not a particularly fast race, yet he still couldn't catch Brody's Cause (who also closed from the back of the field).  As with all of the other deep closers, may not get the pace setup he enjoyed in the prep races.

Verdict: Live longshot, will use in my bets

#7 - Oscar Nominated (ML Odds: 50-1)

Pros: He wasn't nominated to the Triple Crown, but after winning the Spiral, his owners supplemented him into the Derby for $200,000.  That shows a lot of faith!  He's more of a mid-pack stalker than a deep closer, so a slower pace up front won't harm him as much as some of the others in here.

Cons: Having a horse in the Derby who has never won before may have seemed strange to you.  How about entering a horse who has never run on dirt before?  Probably not the best way to get ready for the most important dirt race of the year.  His best speed figure?  82.  This guy and Trojan Nation are two of the three horses most likely to finish last in this race.  The other?  The guy next door.

Verdict: Complete Toss

#8 - Lani (ML Odds: 30-1)

Pros: Only horse in the field to have already run 10 furlongs.  Breeding suggests he is one of the few that will appreciate the length of this race.  2 for 2 on dirt tracks.

Cons: Japanese horse got in by winning the slow UAE Derby.  Has been the talk all week at Churchill Downs because some days the horse refuses to train.  Seems to be a complete head case.  Trainer says the horse can contend if he "decides to run", meaning there is a chance the gates will open on Saturday and this horse may just cantor on out instead of running.  Make sure you get much more than 30-1 odds if you decide to bet him.

Verdict: Complete Toss

#9 - Destin (ML Odds: 15-1)

Pros: Won both Derby preps in Tampa with a couple of the top speed figures in this field.  His last speed figure of 100 is tied for the best figure in the field for a fast route race.  Defeated Outwork (Wood winner) and Brody's Cause (Blue Grass winner) in that race.  He is a pure stalker, which is the perfect running style for this year's race.  He has the best trainer in the country (Todd Pletcher).  And you may get 15-1 on him.

Cons: Hasn't run in 9 weeks (typical Derby layoff: 4-5 weeks).  The last time he ran after a long layoff was the worst race of his career.  Has yet to run a big race outside of Tampa.  Can he duplicate the races he ran there?

Verdict: Will be using, but probably underneath rather than on top

#10 - Whitmore (ML Odds: 20-1)

Pros: Closer made menacing moves in each of the three Arkansas preps, ending up with two seconds and a third in those races.  His jockey (Victor Espinoza) will be looking to make history by becoming the first jockey to win three consecutive Derbies.

Cons: Only wins have been sprints.  Flattened out in all three Arkansas preps after looking like he might win.  Was unable to close as well as Creator and Suddenbreakingnews last time out and there are even more closers in this field.  Serious distance concerns.

Verdict: Complete Toss

#11 - Exaggerator (ML Odds: 8-1)

Pros: The highest speed figure (103) in the field courtesy of his win in the slop in the Santa Anita Derby.  His other speed figures this year (98 and 96) were on dry tracks, so it isn't like he needs it to rain.  Has taken on the best and hung with them, as his last 7 races were all graded stakes and he has finished no further than 3 lengths behind the winner.  Has a Grade 3, a Grade 2, and a Grade 1 victory on his resume.

Cons: Say it with me everybody: he's a closer!  He will likely go off as the second choice, so the value may not be there for this one.  In his races on fast tracks this year, he has given the appearance that he does not want to go longer.  Certainly loves the slop, but looks like there will be no rain on Saturday.

Verdict: Contender, but I will try and beat him, so I won't have him in my bets

#12 - Tom's Ready (ML Odds: 30-1)

Pros: His trainer (Dallas Stewart) specializes in getting longshots to hit the board in the Derby, as Golden Soul and Commanding Curve each finished 2nd in this race at huge odds in recent years.  Typically is a closer, but like Oscar Nominated, will probably be more of a mid-pack stalker in this race.  Churchill Downs is his home track.

Cons: Only made the field when Mo Tom got shut off in the Louisiana Derby.  Had lost to that one three straight times before that.  Highest speed figure is 85.  His one victory came in a sprint where he led the whole way, something that is not going to happen here.

Verdict: Complete Toss

#13 - Nyquist (ML Odds: 3-1)

Pros: He's the undefeated champ.  He has beaten a lot of these horses already.  Wasn't afraid to fly from California to Florida to take on the early Derby favorite, Mohaymen, whom he trounced in the Florida Derby.  He likes to stalk the pace, so he will get the perfect setup in here.  Proved in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year that even if things don't go his way (hung very wide and had to close from far back), he can still get the job done.  Very professional horse.  Did get a speed figure of 101 to begin the year when sprinting.

Cons: Taking 3-1 in the Derby is an easy way to lose money in the long run.  There are distance concerns here as his fastest route speed figure is only 94.  In the Florida Derby, he started wandering out towards the middle of the track at the end of the race.  Might struggle in the final furlong of this race.

Verdict: A must use, but will try and play horses with more value over him on my tickets

#14 - Mohaymen (ML Odds: 10-1)

Pros: Was the early Derby favorite after impressively winning four consecutive Grade 2 races.  Another stalk the pace type, so he should also get a perfect trip on Saturday.  Had he won the Florida Derby (where he was favored over Nyquist), he would have been around 3-1 in this race.  Now you may be getting double-digit odds on this horse.  His only loss was in the Florida Derby, where he raced wide over a wet track.

Cons: What was that last race?  Did he blink the first time another horse actually challenged him?  If so, he's in big trouble here.  Critics don't like the fact that his speed figures haven't improved this year as he put up one 95 after another in those Grade 2 victories.  Has to find a way to turn the tables on Nyquist among others.

Verdict: Will be using, but like Nyquist, probably underneath rather than on top

#15 - Outwork (ML Odds: 15-1)

Pros: Got a big speed figure in Tampa when running second to Destin, then held on to win the Wood Memorial in the slop.  He was the only speed horse in the Wood that didn't back up badly in that race and he set a pretty blistering pace in there.  Will be very prominent in the early pace of this Derby as either the leader of the race or running a close second.  Appears to be getting better at the perfect time.  Was one of the two horses (along with Shagaf) that people have raved about in training this week at Churchill Downs.

Cons: Barely held off an 81-1 maiden in the Wood.  Destin stalked him, then went right by him at the top of the stretch in Tampa after he set a slow pace in that race.  What makes you think horses like Nyquist and Mohaymen won't do the exact same thing, especially since he won't be allowed to get a soft lead in here?

Verdict: Like Exaggerator, I will be trying to beat this contender and will not be using him in my bets

#16 - Shagaf (ML Odds: 20-1)

Pros: Like Mohaymen, he was undefeated until struggling on a wet track in his final Derby prep.  Ran into some trouble while launching his run in the Wood, possibly costing him the race.  He has trained lights out since he has arrived at Churchill Downs.  While he might not be stalking the pace, he will likely work out a very nice position mid-pack in this race.

Cons: Think of him as Mohaymen-lite.  Similar resume, a little less buzz, and certainly slower speed figures than Mohaymen.  His best figure is 88 and that was in his first race ever.  He has yet to match it since.  Like Mohaymen, will have to make amends for the clunker he just had in his final tuneup for the Derby.

Verdict: Toss, just don't think he is fast enough to keep up with the best horses in here

#17 - Mor Spirit (ML Odds: 12-1)

Pros: Has never finished worse than second in 7 career starts.  His trainer, Bob Baffert, knows a thing or two about winning the Derby.  Has consistently run speed figures in the 90's, with his best a 97 two starts back.  Looked like he was struggling to handle the sloppy track in the Santa Anita Derby, but still managed to fight on to get second in that race.  Has been very eager while training at Churchill Downs, giving the impression that this mid-pack stalker may be closer to the pace than usual on Saturday.

Cons: May not have a killer instinct.  During his training, he has not blown away his maiden training partner, almost like he doesn't want to leave him behind.  You can see a similar tendency in the stretch run of his races, which may explain his 4 second place finishes in 7 starts.  Certainly talented enough to win this race, but will he gallop along with his buddies at the end of this race or can he go by them all?

Verdict: My original pick to win the Derby is a must use, but I suspect he might finish second again

#18 - Majesto (ML Odds: 30-1)

Pros: Like Creator, this late bloomer has seen a noticeable bump in his speed figures in his last two races.  Looked like a credible threat to Nyquist at the top of the stretch of the Florida Derby before finishing second and punching his ticket to the Derby.  Should be a big price.

Cons: It's been a while since we've gotten to say hello to another closer in the race, but here we are.  This one isn't as deep of a closer as some others in here, but he's likely going to be well back off the pace.  Only got in here because Mohaymen faltered in the slop.  Top speed figure of 89 won't cut it in this race.

Verdict: Toss, but you may want to use him on the bottom of trifectas/superfectas

#19 - Brody's Cause (ML Odds: 12-1)

Pros: Winner of the Blue Grass has already won two Grade 1 events in his career, while also finishing 3rd in last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile.  He has beaten Exaggerator both times those two horses have faced off.  This is his 3rd start off of a layoff, which is typically when a horse gives his best performance.

Cons: If Gun Runner got the best of the draw, this horse got the worst of it.  He is a deep closer who ended up in post 19.  I've already laid out all of the other closers in this race, so he will either have a very wide trip or he will need to duck in behind a wall of slow horses.  His best speed figure is a 91, so he will need a major improvement to win here.

Verdict: Talented horse, but seems like everything is working against him here, so I will try to beat him

#20 - Danzing Candy (ML Odds: 15-1)

Pros: He is the speed of the speed in a race that doesn't contain very much of it.  Likely only has to worry about Outwork and Nyquist on the front end.  Fended off both Exaggerator and Mor Spirit after setting the pace in the San Felipe.  His speed figure from that race was 100, tied with Destin for the best in this field for a fast route race.  May not have liked the sloppy going when running 4th in the Santa Anita Derby.  He will be the last one loaded into the gate, which may help this horse who has acted up in the gate in the past.

Cons: Post 20 is hard to overcome.  May have to be pushed along early so that he is not wide into the first turn.  Went super fast in the Santa Anita Derby as Smith could not control his speed and faded to fourth, which raised concerns about his stamina.  Will he be able to avoid a wide trip without using too much speed early on?  And can he handle 10 furlongs?

Verdict: My pick to win the Derby.  Love the odds I'm getting.  If he repeats the race he ran in the San Felipe, don't see why he can't go the whole way on Saturday.

#21 - Laoban (Scratched)

#22 - Cherry Wine (Scratched)

Horses I'm using on top: Danzing Candy, Mor Spirit, and My Man Sam

Horses I'm using underneath: Destin, Nyquist, and Mohaymen

One confession on Danzing Candy: I've been following him since his first start, which I loved.  Where did he finish in that race?  8th.  (Hey, American Pharaoh finished 6th in his first start!)  In that race, he had the #1 post (first-time starters are generally freaked out by the rail).  The gates opened, all the other horses left, and Danzing Candy was flat-footed, spotting his opponents 5 lengths.  As they went down the backstretch, Danzing Candy zoomed up the rail, moving from 12th to 6th before running out of room as he approached the lead group.  He checked (pulled up) as he ran up on those horses before his jockey guided him four-wide on the turn.  From there, he moved all the way up to 3rd before running out of juice in the stretch.  His jockey didn't push him once it was clear he wasn't going to win and a few other horses passed him just before the wire.  It was clear that this was a talented horse that needed the experience.  I've been high on him ever since watching that race.  Hopefully he'll run even more impressively on Saturday.

Good luck with your wagers!