Truth is, I had every intention of keeping things that way. But the events that unfolded at the recently concluded Battle of Saratoga were story-worthy. And to tell that story in 140 character blurbs would have taken approximately 17,000 tweets. So I'm breaking my promise to keep this blog restricted to Crossfit-related events only. Just this one time. If it makes you feel better, this blog post will be the answer to the question "Dave, why weren't you at the gym most of this week?"
Some background, followed by some helpful descriptions. Saratoga is the oldest thoroughbred track in the United States. Most horseplayers consider it the best track in the country. It is only open 6 weeks per year, from mid-July to Labor Day. Having grown up about 30 miles away, I was exposed to Saratoga very early in my childhood. When I was 9, I started reading the programs and making "educated guesses" about the horses I would ask my parents to play for me. In my teens, my parents got tired of making bets for me, so they put $20 in a Phonebet account. I would call with my clearly going through puberty voice and the Phonebet operators would accept the bets without question. I would make the money in the Phonebet account last for a long time. When I was 16, I started reading books on handicapping and got better at the game. I made money on the races during my high school years. As I've gotten older, I've expanded the range of tracks I am willing to bet on as well as the types of bets I make. I have good years and bad years.
Helpful horse racing terms:
- Win - to win this bet, your horse must finish 1st.
- Place - to win this bet, your horse must finish 1st or 2nd. This typically pays less money than win bets.
- Show - to win this bet, your horse must finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. This typically pays less money than win or place bets.
- Scratches - when a horse entered in the race is no longer running in the race, the horse is scratched.
- NHC - National Handicapping Championship. Held every January in Las Vegas. This is the most prestigious handicapping tournament in the US. You can qualify by winning a seat in a preliminary tournament or by finishing in the top 150 in points on the NHC Tour. Everyone plays races from 7 different tracks across the country for two days. The top 50 players move on to Day 3, where the field eventually gets whittled down to a final table of 10 before a champion gets crowned. First place at the NHC was $800,000 in 2015.
- NHC Tour - to participate at the NHC, you need to be a member of the NHC Tour. There is a $50 membership fee at the beginning of the year. If you finish in the top 10% of entries in a tournament, you receive NHC tour points. If you do not win a seat to the NHC in a preliminary tournament during the year, you can still get into the NHC if you have enough tour points to be in the top 150 of the yearlong standings. Your top 6 performances count in the standings, although no more than 5 of those tournaments can be online tournaments. Whoever wins the NHC Tour plays for an extra $2,000,000 at the NHC. No one has come close to pulling off that double yet.
- Online tournaments - generally held every weekend. Typical format includes 12 races where you make a mythical $2 win and $2 place bet each race. So you get mythical money if your horse finishes in the top two spots in a race. Whoever has the most mythical money at the end of the tournament is the winner. Most of these tournaments offer 2-4 NHC seats.
- Live tournaments - these are held at race tracks across the country. Frequency varies by location. These tournaments may be similar to online tournaments or they can be live money tournaments. In that format, you are betting real money on the races. Highest bankroll at the end wins. You get to keep your bankroll at the end. Often, you can make bets other than win, place, or show. You may also lose your entire bankroll in these tournaments, so it's not necessarily for the faint of heart. Some live tournaments are multi-day tournaments.
- BCBC - Breeders Cup Betting Challenge. The most prestigious live money handicapping tournament in the country. It is also a multi-day tournament.
Two years ago was the first time that I learned there were handicapping tournaments. This was definitely of interest to me. I started playing online tournaments. In my second one, I earned a trip to the NHC. This was easy! (yeah right) Last year, I qualified for the NHC as well. It did not go well either time. I've also played in the live tournaments at the NY race tracks, as well as a special tournament in Baltimore last year. These are all multi-day tournaments like the NHC. One pattern has emerged: I am atrocious on Day 1, then fall short with my comeback run on Day 2. Despite my failures, I've grown comfortable competing against the best handicappers in the country.
What is my greatest inspiration at these contests? Happy Gilmore.
Maybe it's goofy, but I always thought it would be cool to win one of those. And there would be no better place to do it than Saratoga.
Because Saratoga is the premier track in the country, the fee for entering that handicapping contest ($1,000) is larger than many others. That doesn't stop all of the best handicappers from showing up though. Last year, the tournament had over 220 entries. I had my usual crummy Day 1, then hit a lot of horses late to finish 24th. They were nice enough to pay out the top 30 players, so I got my entry fee back, but Tour points were only given to the top 23 players. I was the bubble boy. It is very difficult to get Tour points in live tournaments, so missing out by 1 spot was painful. Especially since I was near the top 150 in points and did not have an NHC seat locked up at that point last year.
Fast forward to Wednesday as I sat down to compete in this year's contest. My goal: have a productive Day 1. I couldn't afford to spot good handicappers a large lead in a contest like this. There were exactly 260 entries this year, meaning the top 26 players would receive Tour points. They also decided to only pay out the top 10% of players in the contest, so those same 26 people would be the only ones bringing home money as well.
A Day 1 good luck note from my buddy's daughters
The format of the contest is slightly more cutthroat than an online contest. There were 20 races from three tracks (Saratoga, Del Mar, Delaware/Arlington). You made 10 bets, nine $2 bets and one $4 double bet. However, unlike an online tournament where you automatically get win and place bets, you had to choose whether you were betting to win, to place, or to show. At least five of your 10 bets had to be made on races at the host track (Saratoga).
Part of the problem with the Saratoga contest is that they hold it on Wednesday and Thursday. The place is too busy on the weekends to host a handicapping contest, so they hold it mid-week. Unfortunately, that also means playing mid-week races which tend to have smaller fields. That translates into less value generally. And if it rains, then horses are more likely to be scratched, leaving even smaller fields. We had the misfortune of a large thunderstorm traveling up the East Coast on Tuesday, leaving wet conditions at Saratoga and Delaware. Value would be very hard to find!
I placed my first win bet on Saratoga's second race on a 6-1 horse named Sun and Moon. She seemed to be a horse that preferred a wet track and she was decent value for a six-horse field. As they turned into the stretch, Sun and Moon loomed on the outside and took the lead. She got a little weary in deep stretch, staggering towards the finish line like a drunk girl leaving a frat party, but she won the race. I was off to a good start! But so were a lot of other people. The leaderboard shows the top 50 in the standings and at least 50 people played Sun and Moon to win. Finding value was tough enough as it was. Finding value where no one else in the room saw it was going to be near impossible.
After a failed bet on a longshot with my next bet, I played a horse called Foxhall Drive in Saratoga's 6th race to win at 5-1. He seemed like the only speed in the race, but another horse unexpectedly made him work all the way around the track. At the top of the stretch, Foxhall Drive put that horse away, but the race favorite came charging. They battled down the length of the stretch, but in the end, Foxhall Drive missed by a neck having been softened up by the other pacesetter. In an online tournament, that would have been a solid bet. But in this format, close seconds were simply heartbreakers.
As I searched for my next bet, I looked at the TV screen showing the next race at Delaware. It was supposed to be a grass race, but the rain had forced the race on to the dirt. It also forced a bunch of scratches, leaving only 5 horses in the race. I used to ignore races with 6 or less horses in them because it was rare to find value in a race like that, but the odds in this race shocked me. Two of the horses were taking all of the money. The slight favorite had run the fastest races, but all at sprint distances and she had shown a tendency to get tired late in those races. She was going a quarter-mile further in this race than she had ever run before. That seemed shaky. The second favorite had run once and it was a good performance, but then she stopped racing for 16 months. There was no guarantee she would run well either. Among the other three horses, there was one that stood out to me. Her name was Gansett. She hadn't run all that fast in her earlier races, but they were all a mile or longer and they were all on grass. She would be able to handle the distance and it seemed worthwhile at 13-1 to find out whether she could run on dirt. I went and placed my bet. As the horses reached the far turn, the favorite began to fade, while Gansett moved up on the inside of the second favorite. 16 months away from the races left the second favorite without the stamina to keep running in the stretch as Gansett pulled away to win by 5 lengths. The room was eerily quiet. That was a good sign.
After the race became official, the standings were updated. Only one other guy in the field of 260 contestants had played Gansett. I was now in 2nd place!
If only they stopped the tournament at this point...
The rest of the day was a grind as favorite after favorite came in. In Del Mar's second race, I had a horse open up a clear lead in the stretch, only to see a deep closer come and snatch victory away at the last moment. Finished second in Del Mar's third race as well. I held on to my double bet hoping to get a good price in the final race at Saratoga, but my horse's odds dropped, then she ran a disappointing third anyway. At the end of Day 1, I was in 10th place overall. The scores were very bunched, so it wasn't going to take much to shake up the leaderboard, but for the first time ever, I had put myself into a good position with Day 2 on the horizon.
The prizes for the contest were announced before the start of Day 2. Here are the important ones:
1st - $100,000 + NHC seat + BCBC seat
2nd - $35,000 + NHC seat + BCBC seat
3rd - $25,000 + NHC seat
That was some serious cash, not to mention possible entries into the most important tournaments of the year. If ever there was a day where I needed to come through with my handicapping, this was it. As I prepared for Day 2 on Wednesday night, I turned to the 3rd race at Del Mar. This would be the final race of the contest and with the standings as tight as they were, I knew I would need to hit this race to possibly win the contest. I spent extra time analyzing it. My hope was that the horse I liked would be a price and that I could hold on to my double bet until the final race, possibly vaulting me over the competition and securing me a giant cardboard check. That horse's name would be Sutton's Smile. We'll get to her.
When you only have 10 bets over the course of 20 races, you have to root for the favorite to win in the races you are not playing as those horses will only move up your opponents a tiny amount. In fact, most tournament players won't even play horses unless they are something like 5-1 or higher. Early on Day 2, I was in a holding pattern. The early races didn't look that appetizing to me. But I still had to root home the favorites in those races. And for the most part that happened. The largest price early on was a 7-1 horse who nipped a 12-1 shot at the wire. There were a lot of players on that 12-1 shot, so I was lucky that he didn't get there. Eventually I did have to start firing away though and my early choices left a lot to be desired. Not only was I not winning, but my horses were well out of the races. Meanwhile, I was dropping on the leaderboard. Halfway through Day 2, I was down to 28th. The gap from 1st to 28th wasn't all that large, but only 26 people were getting paid and getting Tour points, so I needed to get going.
As Del Mar got ready for their first race, I placed a win bet on a horse named Alyeska. She had run once, breaking poorly and finding herself in last before getting her act together in the stretch, eventually finishing third. 4-1 wasn't the most exciting price, but I had 6 bets left and this seemed as good of a place as any to take a stab. She broke much better, laying in third until making her move in the stretch again. It took her a while to get to the horse on the lead, but she eventually got there, passing her rival to give me a much needed win. I was back up to 15th place, only $17 out of third place, about $35 from the overall lead. I still had 4 more regular bets and my double bet to go. The giant cardboard check was still in sight.
I played a 5-1 shot named Harpoon, who made a big closing move in a race at Saratoga, but couldn't manage better than 2nd. Then I played a 7-1 horse named Loon River who lost all her momentum while rallying around the far turn, before re-accelerating. She was rolling like a freight train in the stretch, gobbling up ground on the leader. But she ran out of time, losing by less than a length to the winner. Winning those races would have been extremely helpful, but there were still opportunities remaining.
With 3 races left, I had 2 regular bets and my double bet. I didn't connect on either of my regular bets, setting the stage for the last race. I was $46 behind 1st place, $27 behind 2nd place, and $24 behind 3rd place. I had dropped down to 24th place. As I sat in my chair, looking over the racing form one last time, I made sure that I wanted Sutton's Smile. She was the perfect value bet for me. She had run once, but did not run all that well in a dirt sprint. That meant she was unlikely to have low odds in today's longer turf race. But her pedigree leaned more towards turf and her trainer had excellent statistics moving horses from the dirt to the turf. She was my horse.
Right before I went to bet, a gentleman I met earlier in the day came over with a bucket of beer and left it for me and the guys at our table. I was certainly in need of a drink. I looked at the odds and saw Sutton's Smile sitting at 14-1. With my double bet, that meant I would win $56-$60 if she won, enough to overtake the leader. It also meant that of the 23 players in front of me, I would pass 22 of them unless they made the same exact double bet as me. How many of those 22 players still had their double bet left? And if they did, were they betting Sutton's Smile? And were they betting him to win? Chances were slim of 1 other player meeting all those criteria (for reference, the leader said after the contest that his last 5 bets were all place bets as he decided to go conservative) much less multiple players. Despite being in 24th place, I was actually in really good position with 1 race to go. I went to place my bet with 7 minutes to go before the race.
When I got back to my seat, I saw the odds on Sutton's Smile had dropped to 13-1. In order to be mathematically alive to win the contest, I needed 10-1 or higher on Sutton's Smile. Still felt comfortable. Cracked open my beer and tried to relax. Pretended that winning $100,000 wouldn't be that big of a deal. With 3 minutes to go before the race, the odds on Sutton's Smile were now 12-1. That wasn't so great. Could we run this race right now please?
I got out of my seat and moved over to the large monitors, where a crowd had gathered to watch the final race. Dozens of people were in the same position as me, mathematically alive for the $100,000. Everything hinged on the final race. I found a place next to a pole and slid down next to it to watch the race from the floor.
At long last, the horses were being loaded into the gate. As the first couple horses entered the gate, Sutton's Smile's odds changed once again. They did not go down to 11-1. Instead, they went right down to 10-1. This was a nightmare. Please start the race already! Sutton's Smile was on the far outside and would be loaded last. Her odds still showed as 10-1 on the screen as they closed the gate behind her. It was time to determine the Battle of Saratoga champion...
...or not. The #2 horse, Balboa Tradition, freaked as the other horses patiently waited for the gate to open. She got so spooked, that she flipped over in the gate. Because seeing a horse upside down in the gate can be upsetting to viewers, Del Mar changed the video to one of the infield while the situation was being resolved. They got Balboa Tradition right side up, but there was no way she could run after something like that. As the jockeys dismounted the other horses and those horses were backed out of the starting gate, the track announcer let patrons know that Balboa Tradition had been scratched. With her scratch, the odds were adjusted on the remaining horses. Sutton's Smile was now 9-1. The dream was over even though the race hadn't even gone off. There would be no giant cardboard check for me.
I felt angry. I felt nauseous. More than anything, I felt cursed. This was finally my shot and a horse flips over in the gate to end it? Some guys were running to the windows as their last bet was on the scratched horse. Would they switch to Sutton's Smile now by default? Would they share in my pick because their shitty horse lost her cool? I felt cheated. Part of me wanted to leave and not watch the race at all. I sipped on my beer and tried to regroup mentally. I could always change my pick to a horse with higher odds, but that was a mistake I used to make when I first started playing tournaments. If I thought Sutton's Smile was the horse, I was wasting my pick throwing it on some longshot I didn't really think could win. And besides, just because first place was gone, it wasn't like getting second or third would be chump change. $25-35k would be the most I'd ever won in a tournament, plus a top three finish would get me into the NHC, possibly the BCBC as well.
As I watched the odds on Sutton's Smile change to 8-1, I stood up to watch the race from the other side of the room. The horses were finally being reloaded into the gate. There was still hope. And they were off! And it was bad...
When most people watch a horse race, they are generally just concerned with the end of the race. Where is my horse when they get to the final stretch? When I watch a race, I tend to know what chance my horse has of winning before the race is halfway over. And the start of this race left me throwing my hands in the air. Starting on the far outside, there is always the concern that your horse will get hung out wide on the turns, losing precious ground. Sutton's Smile wanted to be near the front, but so did a lot of the horses inside of her. Instead of pulling her back a bit and ducking behind the speedy inside horse, my jockey let Sutton's Smile go 6 wide into the first turn. Once again, I was ready to leave.
On the backstretch, Sutton's Smile was still 4 wide, sitting in 5th place, a couple paths outside of the race favorite. I kept waiting for her to fade due to her wide trip, but she kept plugging along. As they got to the far turn, she was still 3 wide, now alongside the race favorite. And then something happened that gave me chills. (I do not get chills often) Sutton's Smile kicked it into another gear. She made a big move on the turn, going from 5th all the way up into the lead as they entered the stretch. I began yelling for my horse with another well-known tournament player yelling beside me. I didn't hear any other yelling which meant a lot of people had not bet my horse. And I knew I was ahead of the guy next to me in the standings. Could this be happening? Was my dream scenario really going to play out?
As Sutton's Smile grabbed a lead of about a length and a half at the top of the stretch, the race favorite moved outside of the fading pacesetter and began to close. We were still yelling for Sutton's Smile, but her lead was shrinking. At the sixteenth pole (the last marker before the finish line), the two horses were side-by-side, but the race was over. The wide trip had taken it's toll. The only way Sutton's Smile was winning was if the other horse lost her jockey. The race favorite's momentum brought her to victory and all the emotions that had run through me a few minutes ago were back. I walked back to my seat and finished my beer as I waited for the race results to be made official.
With the final race in the books, all that was left to do was find out where I finished in the standings. If there wasn't a giant horse hoof-shaped mark on my nether regions after all that had happened in the previous 10 minutes, there was about to be one. The last race moved three players past me, dropping me to 27th place, a measly 70 cents behind the last player getting paid. For the second straight year, I would be the Battle of Saratoga bubble boy, only this time I wasn't getting back my entry fee as a consolation prize. Saratoga is truly my favorite place in the world, but I wanted to be a million miles away from there at that moment.
I spent Thursday night at my friend's house. His daughters put together a pizza party that helped cheer me up, as did the several beers I shared with him. On one hand, this was the most soul-crushing gambling experience of my life. Those last 10 minutes were pure torture. On the other hand, I put myself into position to win one of the most prestigious handicapping tournaments out there. I can't be disappointed about that. It simply wasn't my turn to win the giant cardboard check.
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